I’m going to make a prediction, which is in my opinion an objective one. I think Obama is going to win the U.S Presidential election. If I get it wrong, this prediction and my prediction map are here for all of you to diss at your leisure.
The three closest calls in my opinion are Florida, Virginia and Colorado which are too close to call either way but in the interests of having a firm prediction on record; I made a decision for each of them. Keep in mind though that Obama would still carry the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to win the election if he lost all three to Romney.
No matter what way we cut it, my politics class and I are of the opinion that the Electoral College math is much more favourable to Obama then Romney. I think the media is saying it is too close to call purely as a business decision more then anything else. Obama could even lose the all of the critical big three swing states (Florida, Virginia and Ohio) in my map and still squeeze in a win. Romney would have to not only scoop the entire big three, but also Colorado to win. All four of these states voted for Obama in 2008, and all except for maybe Ohio have a higher minority share of the vote this year than four years ago, which isn’t surprising considering minorities (80% of whom voted for Obama in 2008 compared to 43% of non-hispanic whites) make up the majority of children born in America as of this year. Obama has demographics, incumbency and a lackluster Republican candidate on his side.
I’d put my money where my mouth is and lay down some cold hard cash on this opinion, but unfortunately I’ve spent the last of every dime I have this week on concert tickets and definitely won’t be able to make any more until after the election.
What I find by far the most interesting about all this is that some conservative leaning newspapers in Australia and the UK appear to be supporting Obama. Taking a good long look at his policies, he’s probably on the right side of the centre compared to the rest of the Western world. The so called “socialist” is undoubtedly the preferred candidate of the U.K Conservative Party.
What will David Cameron do if Mitt Romney wins? Having disparaged him, his party and his philosophy for so long, I can only imagine that the first conversation between the new President and our unfriendly Prime Minister will be defined by a rather awkward silence.
Meanwhile in Australia, the reason Prime Minister Julia Gillard is unpopular seems to have little to nothing to do with the fact that she’s an childless, unmarried, atheist , ex-socialist (in the literal sense, not the pejorative sense that it’s been used against Obama, Gillard was an actual socialist). While nobody seems to care here in Australia, the chances of somebody like Gillard becoming the head of government in the U.S would basically be zero.
What all this tells me is that America is much more conservative politically compared to its English speaking cousins. Now imagine how the U.S compares to mainland Europe. I have a couple of my own suspicions, but I’d be interested in hearing other people’s opinions on why they think this is, especially from conservatives themselves.
I don’t think it needs to be said that I find politics (and humanities in general) to be interesting; hence why I’m studying it, Australian politics is however mind numbingly boring. American politics for lack of a better word is entertaining, to say the least.
Starting Young & Aiming High